Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
